Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 3.709269 4.398711 5.164372 6.075395 7.127390 8.301498 9.708507
2025-06-15 2.722794 3.660631 4.819649 6.346025 8.290561 10.671081 13.790209
2025-06-22 2.023568 3.034094 4.402760 6.365341 9.075390 12.648852 17.672492
2025-06-29 1.558053 2.572830 4.061804 6.358565 9.752682 14.511883 21.597625
2025-07-06 1.228920 2.215239 3.770290 6.328691 10.339097 16.266512 25.530608
2025-07-13 1.097613 2.130575 3.859989 6.860516 11.794988 19.403334 31.762644
2025-07-20 0.941369 1.963644 3.777087 7.086480 12.779774 21.910438 37.280114
2025-07-27 0.824261 1.838535 3.736423 7.363282 13.861623 24.656331 43.409562
2025-08-03 0.695638 1.660189 3.563980 7.371787 14.471330 26.673959 48.527163
2025-08-10 0.563468 1.442210 3.274169 7.111595 14.557867 27.798164 52.231998
2025-08-17 0.449008 1.233861 2.962628 6.754197 14.406472 28.471161 55.192150
2025-08-24 0.377006 1.105916 2.793950 6.652696 14.718618 29.984572 59.739061
2025-08-31 0.315735 0.991122 2.637875 6.564278 15.067185 31.639301 64.771766
2025-09-07 0.290370 0.964951 2.681895 6.920619 16.369723 35.230644 73.722933
2025-09-14 0.251368 0.890033 2.594421 6.965372 17.020442 37.613871 80.579707
2025-09-21 0.216337 0.816481 2.495544 6.966557 17.573667 39.848655 87.326886
2025-09-28 0.185505 0.746467 2.391447 6.937175 18.051566 41.966991 94.006335
2025-10-05 0.180789 0.761519 2.522053 7.515414 19.983641 47.269031 107.495048
2025-10-12 0.164810 0.732910 2.523961 7.760946 21.161083 51.064545 118.164856
2025-10-19 0.152095 0.712342 2.545458 8.061278 22.501294 55.316774 130.083825
2025-10-26 0.133033 0.661354 2.464837 8.070556 23.128488 58.052349 138.989489
2025-11-02 0.110009 0.585836 2.290703 7.788413 22.989916 59.059131 144.250572
2025-11-09 0.088716 0.508606 2.092338 7.400696 22.528471 59.280423 147.799086